After the emergence of the Islamic State terrorist organization (ISIS) in Syria and its control over large areas of Syria with support of the Turkish military and its threat to Rojava regions, the People’s Protection Units (YPG) and the Women Protection Units (YPJ) were able to stop the advance of this terrorist organization and protect their areas. Then, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) formed from the people of the region to complete their project in defeating ISIS and establishing the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria. In contrast, the so-called Syrian Opposition Coalition backed by Turkey lost all areas of their control in favor of the regime through agreements between Russia and Turkey, and their presence was receded in Idlib governorate only. Given the historical Turkish hostility to the Kurdish people, it cooperated with its mercenaries in the Syrian Opposition Coalition to occupy Afrin, Serekaniye (Rasa al-Ain) and Gre Spi (Tal Abyad) after their failure to topple the Syrian regime. Despite this, peoples of the north and east Syria’s regions prove the success of their project of the Autonomous Administration and received support from the international community, but this project was not welcomed by Turkey, Iran and the Syrian regime, despite the fact that the Autonomous Administration does not demand secession from Syria, but rather it is still calling for the Syrian unity, in contrast to the Turkish occupation areas that became linked to Turkey culturally, economically and militarily. The success of the Autonomous Administration made the Syrian regime with its supporter of Russia and Turkey, and its mercenaries to focus their efforts on igniting seditions in north and east Syria’s regions, carrying out assassinations of some Arab tribal dignities such as the assassination of Suleiman al-Kassar, the speaker of the al-Baggara clan and Suleiman al-Wais, member of the same clan, in addition to the assassination of Mutashhar al-Hamoud al-Hafl, one of the al-Akidat tribe’s elders, especially after the success of the Autonomous Administration in attracting the American company Delta Crescent Energy to invest in their regions, which will positively affect the economic situation of the peoples of the region, although it remained an advertisement until now. Before starting any political settlement in Syria, Russia is seeking with all its efforts, to find a solution that suits it and guarantees its interests. If the situation remains as it is, Russia will be the biggest economic loser, as the Caesar Act prohibits any company or state from investing in the Syrian regime-held areas. Also, as the SDF is a partner of the US and the Global Coalition, and as the Autonomous Administration regions are exempt from sanctions, Russia aspires to obtain an oil investment contract instead of the American company in order to compensate for its losses in Syria and to tighten its grip on north and east Syria’s regions. Faced with this reality of the successes of the Autonomous Administration, the economic crises that plague the regime, Russia’s failure to reap its economic fruits, and Turkey’s failure to occupy north and east Syria’s regions, the Autonomous Administration and the SDF may face several scenarios:
1- A Russian-Turkish alliance along with the Syrian regime to eliminate the Autonomous Administration and the SDF militarily according to an agreement that guarantees their interest similar to the operations of Olive Branch and Peace Spring that led to the occupation of Afrin, Serekaniye (Rasa al-Ain) and Gre Spi (Tal Abyad), in case the US withdrew from Syria, but this scenario is far to some extent, as Russia’s alliance with Turkey, a NATO member will not be accepted by the US because the presence of the US in northeastern Syria is linked to its relationship with the SDF. So, the elimination of the SDF and the termination of the Autonomous Administration means that the US will lose its influence in Syria and its exit from the Syrian political process in favor of Russia and Turkey. Also, Russia is trying to regain Idlib, which is under the control of the Turkish occupation, because the occurrence of an alliance between the two countries requires putting the record straight with regard to the Turkish occupation areas in the north of Syria, especially Idlib, as Turkey will not accept ceding its areas in favor of the Syrian regime in return for ending the Autonomous Administration, since that means its loss in the Syrian crisis.
2- Igniting sedition in the Autonomous Administration areas: This scenario has been in place since the beginning of the Syrian crisis, whether through Turkey or the Syrian regime, and their relationship with some tribal figures in Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa and some areas of the Autonomous Administration, but what is new in this scenario is the targeting of Arab tribal dignities such as al-Baggara and al-Akidat clans taking advantage of the divisions within these clans, accusing the SDF and the Autonomous Administration of the assassinations took place recently. This operation comes after the success of the Autonomous Administration in attracting foreign companies to invest in their areas to improve the living conditions of the peoples of the region, which makes the communities of the region more adherent to the Autonomous Administration. Therefore, Russia, Turkey and the Syrian regime aim at creating a state of instability in the region and ignite discord among the communities of the region with the aim of preventing foreign companies from investing in the Autonomous Administration areas. These operations will not be limited to tribal sheikhs and SDF leaders only, but will affect soldiers of the Global Coalition, especially the Americans in order to accelerate the US withdrawal from the region, especially since the US President announced his desire to withdraw from Syria on more than one occasion which is what these countries are betting on.
3- Russia and the Syrian regime’s acquiesce to the Autonomous Administration and eliminate Turkish occupation: US forces remain in the Autonomous Administration areas along with the failure of the attempts of Russia, Turkey and the Syrian regime to create discord in the region and the entry of foreign companies to invest in the Autonomous Administration areas, will be difficult to eliminate the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria as these companies will exert pressure on their countries to preserve their investments in the region, and thus this will force Russia and the Syrian regime to acquiesce to the Autonomous Administration and accept it, but Russia wants a detailed settlement according to its own size in order to ensure its control over all of Syria. With the growing Russian-Turkish differences, whether in Idlib or in Libya, Russia may resort to the SDF help in its anticipated battle in Idlib and the elimination of terrorist factions in the Turkish occupied areas.
In addition, there are ways and methods that Russia may follow in north and east Syria, which is to allow Turkish drones to carry out military operations targeting SDF leaders to force the SDF to acquiesce to its demands and deal with it as it does with the US.
Finally, in order to preserve the gains of the Autonomous Administration which has provided the most precious including martyrs for the peoples of the region to enjoy security and stability, to face everyone who seeks to undermine them and to avoid any possible scenario, strengthening the home front and the solidarity of the peoples of the region with their administration remains the only solution to stand in the face of all plans, whether Turkish or Russian that aiming to eliminate the Autonomous Administration.
