The Implications of Iran–Israel Conflict and Its Regional and Global Dimensions
The Middle East has long been the arena of complex, overlapping conflicts shaped by geopolitical, religious, and economic factors. These conflicts involve local, regional, and global actors. Among the most significant today is the escalating confrontation between Iran and Israel, which moved into an overt phase following Hamas’ attack on October 7, 2023. That attack left around 1,200 dead, according to official statements by Israel’s Foreign Ministry and various media outlets.
In response, Israel launched intense strikes on Hamas in Gaza, while Iran intervened through its regional proxies. On June 13, 2025, the situation escalated further when Israel targeted nuclear sites in Iran — an unprecedented move that pushed the Middle East into a new phase of open escalation.
This conflict is no longer centered solely on Palestine. It has become a testing ground for the reconfiguration of the regional order, with repercussions that reach far beyond the region. These developments can be analyzed along the following axes:
- Iran’s External Escalation as a Response to Internal Crisis
Iran is grappling with deep internal crises, beginning with the 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests following the death of Mahsa (Jina) Amini. These events exposed the fragility of the regime’s legitimacy. Western sanctions and increasing international isolation have compounded Iran’s economic and social distress.
In response, the Iranian regime has leaned into external crises as a strategy to deflect attention from domestic turmoil, rally national and sectarian sentiments, and reinforce internal cohesion. However, this strategy often deepens the regime’s legitimacy crisis—particularly as the cost of conflict falls disproportionately on the poor and economically vulnerable. This reveals a fundamental disconnect between state and society, where the leadership embraces external confrontation as a survival tactic at the people’s expense.
- Iran’s Network of Non-State Actors
For decades, Iran has built an expansive and unconventional sphere of influence by backing non-state actors such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq, and Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Palestine.
While this network has granted Iran strategic depth, it has also dragged the region into protracted proxy wars and further destabilized regional security. The waning influence of some of these actors—due to sustained Israeli strikes and the collapse of the Assad regime’s power base in Syria—has brought Iran into more direct confrontation with Israel, risking a broader regional explosion.
- The Conflict’s Impact on the Arab Regional Order
Recent developments have underscored the fragility of the Arab regional system. It has failed to produce a unified stance toward the escalating crisis. Divisions among Arab states—and normalization agreements with Israel by some—have weakened the Palestinian cause and opened space for non-Arab powers, notably Iran and Turkey, to assert influence in Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria (though their influence has waned more recently).
This dynamic raises fundamental questions about sovereignty, the role of the people, and the need for alternative governance models. These should transcend the outdated nation-state structure and embrace democratic self-administration as a means to empower local communities and secure self-determination.
- War as a Tool of Destruction, Not Liberation
Despite being framed as tools of liberation or deterrence, the wars launched by Israel and Iran have only reinforced state-centric domination while devastating societies. Key national causes—like the Palestinian and Kurdish struggles—remain unresolved. The Syrian crisis, despite the fall of the former regime, persists and has taken on new dimensions.
Rather than dismantling authoritarian systems, war has left behind long-term human and societal destruction. This underscores the importance of Abdullah Öcalan’s vision, which argues that salvation will not come through the nation-state but by surpassing it—through a democratic model based on grassroots organization, social justice, and equality.
- Economic and Security Impacts and Global Ramifications
Economic:
- Oil prices surged due to the conflict, reaching $78 per barrel on June 19, 2025, with projections estimating a rise to $90–95 if escalation continues.
- Supply chains, particularly in energy and raw materials, have been disrupted.
- Military spending has increased at the expense of development. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), military expenditure in the region rose by about 12% in the first half of 2025.
Security and Social:
- Iranian hints at pursuing nuclear weapons were a primary factor behind Israel’s June 13 strikes.
- Rising terrorist threats due to instability, including renewed activity by groups like ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
- A new wave of refugees has emerged—some reportedly fleeing from Iran into Azerbaijan.
- According to UNHCR, there has been a notable rise in the number of people in need of resettlement, with Afghan and Iraqi refugees in Iran now numbering in the hundreds of thousands. Despite deportations, the total refugee population in Iran is estimated at 3.8 million.
- Who Benefits from War?
Authoritarian regimes exploit conflict to eliminate domestic dissent and restore their legitimacy by invoking external threats. Meanwhile, global powers—including the U.S., Russia, China, and several European states—capitalize on such conflicts to sell arms and redraw spheres of influence.
Extremist groups also thrive in this chaos, repackaging violence under the banners of resistance or jihad. This fuels sectarianism and ethnic tensions, locking societies into cycles of perpetual war.
- Women and Youth: The Broken Human Shield
Social priorities have been sidelined entirely. In all these conflicts, women and youth—who often serve as the fuel for war—are marginalized. Women face grave violations, while youth are either drained on the frontlines or forced into exile.
No liberation project can succeed without making social justice and the empowerment of women and youth central pillars of its vision.
- The Alternative Vision
The Kurdish thinker Abdullah Öcalan, author of The Sociology of Freedom, offers a comprehensive vision that transcends the nation-state through his concept of the “Democratic Nation.” This vision is founded on:
- Democratic self-administration.
- Inclusion of all cultural and religious groups.
- Rejection of nationalism and sectarianism in favor of pluralism.
- A community-based, ecological economy.
- Grassroots social organization.
- Full and institutionalized inclusion of women on the basis of gender parity.
This model not only provides a framework for addressing the Kurdish question, but also offers a broader solution to the structural crises afflicting the Middle East.
- Strategies for Exiting the Crisis
To address the current deadlock in the Middle East, the following steps are proposed:
- Launch a genuine regional dialogue that includes all social components.
- Dismantle the nation-state’s monopoly over force and adopt democratic self-governance models.
- Halt arms supplies to warring factions and impose independent international monitoring.
- Build a popular democratic alliance that transcends nationalist and sectarian militarization.
- Internationalize solutions while ensuring transparency and public accountability.
Toward a New Consciousness and a Unified Liberation Project
What we are facing is not a set of isolated political conflicts, but a comprehensive civilizational crisis in how we understand the state, society, and justice.
The peoples of the Middle East will not be freed from hegemony or tyranny using the same tools that entrenched their crises. Only a new political consciousness—based on grassroots democracy, participation, and social justice—can break the cycle.
The solution will not come from weapons but from reviving true politics, built from the ground up, in the spirit of the “Democratic Nation,” addressing human beings as ends in themselves—not tools.
The key question now is:
Do we have the courage to shift from the nation-state paradigm to a liberated, democratic society?
Sources Referenced:
- Official statement on the October 7, 2023 attack – Israeli Foreign Ministry – Official site and news agencies
- CNBC Arabia & Reuters – “Oil Prices Rise Amid Escalating Iran–Israel Tensions” – June 19, 2025
- UNHCR – Refugee Statistics in Iran – June 2025
- IISS – Middle East Military Spending Report – 2025
