The guarantor countries are a guarantee for the continuation of the Syrian crisis

The guarantor countries, Russia, Turkey, and Iran alongside the regime, have not been a guarantee for any ceasefire in all Syrian territories nor have they been a guarantee for any dialogue or initiative aimed at resolving the Syrian crisis. Instead, these countries have taken a different approach, increasing their cooperation through bilateral or collective meetings, whether in Astana, Sochi, or in the capitals of these countries, against any steps that may affect their influence in Syria. These parties have become greatly concerned with exacerbating the Syrian crisis and pushing it towards a dangerous direction, especially since these countries exploit the regional crisis, particularly the crisis in Gaza, to achieve gains in Syria.

So, the Syrian crisis has not witnessed since its outbreak, even with the emergence of ISIS and the spread of terrorist groups throughout Syria, a more serious situation than it is today. Since 2020, the Syrian crisis has taken a more serious turn, whether through targeting infrastructure and civilians, or the economic deterioration that accompanied the collapse of the Syrian pound, which began to rapidly decline since 2020, causing great suffering to the Syrian people, and the actors are what are called the guarantor countries.

The guarantor countries are a danger to the Syrian people

Russia         

Regardless of Russia’s geopolitical ambitions in Syria, its dealings with both the Turkish occupation and Iran make the Syrian crisis far from being resolved. Russia turns a blind eye to the Turkish occupation’s terrorist attacks on the self-administration areas and does not pressure them to prevent Turkish drones from flying over Syrian airspace to carry out their terrorist attacks on the region. This is despite the Russian military presence on the border strip between the self-administration areas and the Turkish occupation, as well as its control over the civilian Qamishli airport, which it has turned into a military airport to serve its interests in the region. Additionally, its alliance with Iran in Syria and allowing Iranian militias to expand further in Syria make the international community more inclined to adhere to US sanctions on Syria, preventing the reconstruction of Syria and making it vulnerable to Israeli attacks targeting Iranian bases. Russia, which initially sought to end the Syrian crisis on its own terms, now sees the continuation of the Syrian crisis as serving its interests as a region for settling scores against its enemies. Russia’s dealings with the Turkish occupation and Iran, and its failure to take any measures to curb their intervention in the Syrian crisis, which serve its geopolitical interests at the expense of the Syrian people and their suffering, places Russia among the countries hostile to the Syrian people.

Turkey

After the failure of the Turkish occupation state to get the green light from the United States to carry out a barbaric ground invasion similar to Afrin, Gire sipi, and Serêkaniyê, Turkey has begun to take a new and more dangerous direction in its aggressive policy towards the self-administration areas of northern and eastern Syria. This is done through artillery shelling, the use of drones, and systematic targeting of infrastructure, civilians, the Syrian Democratic Forces, and security forces. Taking advantage of international and regional crises, Turkey serves its colonial policy, exploiting the silence of the international community towards Turkish terrorism. This puts significant economic, military, and social pressure on the self-administration areas, limiting their ability to combat terrorism and implement development projects. Turkey’s coordination with Russia, Iran, and the regime in eastern Euphrates, specifically in the countryside of Deir Al-Zor, constantly exposes the self-administration areas to terrorist attacks and seditions. Turkish ambitions lie in fully occupying northern Syria, including the city of Aleppo, as part of the Ottoman Turkish project, and annexing these areas to Turkish territory under the pretext of the Milli National Pact. Therefore, prolonging the Syrian crisis serves Turkish ambitions in continuing demographic change operations in the occupied northern Syria and countering the growing democratic project in Syria, in addition to monitoring the Iranian project in Syria and Iraq “due to the historical conflict between the Ottoman Empire and the Persian Empire over the region”.

Iran

Since the outbreak of the armed conflict in Syria, Iran has stood by the Syrian regime. However, this cooperation has taken a new turn with Iran’s control over the political decision-making in Damascus and its permission to culturally expand “Shiism” throughout Syria. Iran, along with Russia, also controls the country’s economic and military capabilities. Israel sees this Iranian expansion as a threat to its national security and will not accept the presence of Iranian weapons bases and storage facilities on Syrian territory. Therefore, Syrian territory is targeted by Israeli airstrikes. This expansion also poses a threat to Arab countries, especially Jordan and the Gulf states, which prevents Arab countries from intervening in the reconstruction of Syria, especially with the Syrian regime’s refusal to implement the Arab initiative step by step. This initiative aims to limit Iranian influence in Syria and put an end to the drug trade. Syria has become the world’s drug source, especially towards Jordan and the Gulf states. The Iranian expansion prevents any solution to the Syrian crisis and hinders the reconstruction of Syria, alongside the continuation of international sanctions on Syria. Therefore, Iran’s presence in Syria and the prolongation of the Syrian crisis serve its expansionist project and prevent the new Ottoman expansion in Syria.

Syrian regime

The Syrian regime has never been a system that works towards equality and freedom and applies democracy. Instead, it has been a suppressive regime against advocates of democracy and freedom. The Syrian regime, which has suffered from the terrorist intervention of the Turkish occupation state and its support for terrorist organizations, has destroyed Syria’s infrastructure and displaced millions. Today, we find it refusing to normalize relations with Turkey, yet it is holding hands with the Turkish occupation state in files where the interests of both parties meet, such as “striking the self-administration and its democratic project.” They are coordinating at the highest security and military levels to achieve their goals, which justifies the regime’s silence in the face of barbaric attacks on the self-administration areas and the destruction of their infrastructure. The regime does not use military and political means to stop these attacks, as it is primarily concerned with protecting the security and sovereignty of Syrian territories. There is also significant coordination between them, along with Russia and Iran, through supporting some tribes or some Arab tribal leaders residing in regime-controlled areas or in Turkish territories. These leaders have extensions in eastern Euphrates to mobilize their followers and terrorist cells in the eastern countryside of Deir Al-Zor to create an Arab-Kurdish conflict and weaken the security and stability in the region, paving the way for the revival of ISIS alongside pushing the United States to withdraw from Syria. This is in addition to the organic relationship with Iran and the regime’s inability to make political decisions regarding Iranian presence in Syria, as well as the Russian role and its control over political decisions in Damascus.

The Syrian regime, which has become a slave to Russian and Iranian politics, and with some of its interests intersecting with the Turkish occupation, makes this regime a plague on the Syrian people and on the emerging democracy in northern and eastern Syria, and some regions that aspire to follow the path of the democratic nation project. The insistence of this regime on its current policy and its rejection of national or Arab initiatives prolongs the crisis and the suffering of the Syrian people.

The future of Syria under the so-called guarantor countries

These countries, “Russia, Turkey, and Iran along with the regime,” despite their ideological differences and ambitions, coordinate with each other in international and regional crises and share some files to protect their international and regional interests. The presence of US forces and the international coalition in Syria, and their partnership with the Syrian Democratic Forces in fighting terrorism and the international openness towards the self-administration and its democratic project as a solution to the Syrian crisis, and the spread of its democratic ideas within Syria, all pose a threat to the interests of these countries. Therefore, these countries, in cooperation with the regime, are trying by all means to force the United States to withdraw from eastern Euphrates and undermine the project of the democratic nation by intervening in the case of consensus among the components of the Syrian people in the areas of self-administration in northern and eastern Syria, and creating an Arab-Kurdish conflict in the eastern countryside of Deir Al-Zor, and opening the way for terrorists under the name of tribes to cross the Euphrates River and carry out military operations against the Syrian Democratic Forces. Therefore, the Syrian crisis under these countries will take a more dangerous direction towards the Syrian people in all its spectrums and in general Syria, pushing Syria towards…

• Dividing Syria into multiple regions according to international and regional interests, and with the ongoing Syrian crisis and the ideological differences of these regions and their connections to the hostile foreign agenda against the Syrian people, these regions, regardless of the Syrian crisis from an international perspective, will be subject to internal conflicts and disputes based on external influences.
• The continued targeting of infrastructure and civilians throughout Syria, the Syrian regime, along with Iran and Russia, will work on bombing the areas under the control of terrorist organizations in northern Syria, which are under Turkish occupation, with the tacit approval of Turkey. They will also target areas outside their control indirectly, such as the self-administration areas in northern and eastern Syria, and the Syrian people in the occupied northern Syria will be the victims. The internal and coastal areas will also be vulnerable to Israeli airstrikes due to Iranian expansion in areas controlled by the regime, and the Syrian people will also be victims. As for the self-administration areas, they will be targeted by all parties due to their democratic project.
• The continuation of US sanctions as a result of Iranian presence in Syria and its organic relationship with the regime, and the regime’s inability to take serious steps to resolve the Syrian crisis, whether through external initiatives such as the Arab Initiative “step by step” or national initiatives such as the self-administration initiative, due to its complete subordination to Russian and Iranian policies. US sanctions may increase in the future in line with international and regional balances and crises, thus the reconstruction of Syria will be forgotten indefinitely.
• The suffering of the Syrian people continues, as the Syrian crisis persists internally and externally, with the Syrian pound collapsing and no future plans to improve the economy or at least stop the deterioration of the currency. The brutal bombing of infrastructure and civilians continues, along with the ongoing American sanctions on Syria. The regime persists in its stubborn denial of all parties and rejection of national and Arab initiatives aimed at resolving the Syrian crisis and ending the suffering of the Syrian people, insisting on its own vision as the only solution. Therefore, the suffering of the Syrian people will increase significantly, and they may reach a point where they are unable to secure the basic necessities of life, leading to a widespread famine among the Syrian people.

Resolve the Syrian crisis and put an end to the suffering of the Syrian people

The control of the guarantor countries in the Syrian crisis, and the lack of desire for any party to withdraw from Syria, along with the absence of American intervention to force Turkey to withdraw from northern Syria, and Russia’s inability to reduce Iranian influence in Syria, and with a crumbling regime that lacks any national political decision towards Syria and its people and land, and with the continuation of regional and international interventions, then the external solution will be almost impossible, if not impossible. The solution remains in the hands of the Syrians to establish autonomous administrations under a decentralized system and a unified democratic project agreed upon by all autonomous administrations to prevent any future disputes or conflicts. The self-administration of northern and eastern Syria, with its democratic project, which has begun to affect the rest of the Syrian regions, may be the beginning of an internal solution to the Syrian crisis. The success of the Suwayda region in forming an autonomous administration and ending the suffering of its people may give a strong impetus to the rest of the regions to follow the self-administration of northern and eastern Syria and the emerging self-administration in Suwayda, thus turning Syria into a decentralized system where autonomous administrations can manage their regions according to a unified democratic system and constitution.