AANES in light of Turkish-Egyptian rapprochement

If there is someone who practices indolence and impudence par excellence, and in a common way, especially at this time, it will be the Turkish state in its own right.

This is because the Turkish state is racing against time before the presidential elections scheduled for May 14, in order to implement the “zero problems” policy. It is characterized by bankruptcy at times and by tension and convulsions at others. Rather, it differs in several issues with its general surroundings. Recently, it has been searching for correcting this path. Of course, the visit of the Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, to Cairo is in the last direction.

It is necessary to say that, over the past two decades, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey has pursued a policy of sticking the nose in everything, even with enemies, if not; as one of the elements of governance. It shares with Iran the repercussions of the region’s crises, whether entirely or in a lower rank than Israel. Iran intervenes to support its Shiite allies, while Turkey intervenes to support its Sunni allies in Syria, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, Egypt and Libya.

These countries are fragmented by Turkish interventions, whether with soft power/special war or military weapons. What Turkey is doing is like a parasite, feeding on anything. Rather, it draws its strength from others. Its only concern is to be present at the policy tables of states, in any way, regardless of the revenues that lead to that. Undoubtedly, it found its way through the Muslim Brotherhood – political Islam – to gain access to these schemes, and it loses more than it gains. It maneuvered with several burnt papers, which proved useless. In the past, it bet in Egypt on the continuation of the rule of the “Muslim Brotherhood”, during the period of the former president, Mohamed Morsi, but it fell popularly without resistance, in addition to its attempt to consolidate the foundations of the Barzanis, by establishing Turkish bases in Iraqi Kurdistan Region (KRI), the support of the previous Government of National Accord headed by Fayez al-Sarraj in Libya in late 2019, however, it lost the support of the international will, so it dispersed, and in Syria by supporting terrorist groups in their areas of control, especially in the occupied city of Afrin. Rather, Turkey’s own crises with Israel, Cyprus, Greece and Armenia have multiplied. What is certain is that it will not be able to solve its crises with such dogmatic thinking. Even if it tries it over and over again. It is impossible. If conditions allow Turkey, it will wipe out the Kurds completely. It will not discourage from this goal as long as the international community fails to play its role and uses double standards. This is what happened, and it happens many times, with the Kurds themselves. But at an unspecified time and place. It also interfered in Egypt.

Relations between Cairo and Ankara became severely strained in 2013 following the overthrow of President Mohamed Morsi who belonged to the “Muslim Brotherhood.” Egypt classifies it as a “terrorist”. As for his ally, Erdogan, he described his Egyptian counterpart as a “tyrant” and that he would never communicate with someone like him. But the devastating earthquake that hit Turkey and Syria, marked the restoration of relations. Last month, Egyptian Foreign Minister, Sameh Shoukry, paid a visit to Turkey, and the Egyptian President also made a phone call to Erdogan, with the aim of showing his country’s solidarity with Ankara, following the earthquake. This means that restoring the path of relations is a matter of time to end a decade of estrangement, according to Cavusoglu’s expression, who said: “It was agreed to turn the page on tension, and to take steps to restore relations.”

However, we still have to ask two questions; the first: What are the prospects for the relationship between Turkey and Egypt in light of the development of the diplomatic track? To answer this, it seems that the bilateral relationship will go to what is expected, towards an accelerated development. Accordingly, two situations can be observed: politically, it started with the handshake between el-Sisi and Erdogan last November, on the sidelines of the opening of the FIFA World Cup in Qatar. Before talking about a positive path, there are still several stalled files. Turkey wants to make progress on the file of border demarcation in the gas-rich waters of the eastern Mediterranean, as well as joining the Mediterranean Gas Forum, which is based in Egypt. On the other hand, Cairo called on Ankara to support the elections in Libya and to end the file of hosting the “Muslim Brotherhood” members, in addition to calling on Egyptian opposition television channels operating in Turkey to moderate their criticism of Egypt. And economically, despite the political differences, economic and trade relations did not stop. Rather, the volume of exchanges increased from $4.4 billion in 2007 to $11.1 billion in 2020, according to the Carnegie Center for Research. In 2022, Turkey will be the first importer of Egyptian products, with a value of $4 billion. In any case, Egypt needs a financial and commercial recovery, especially in light of the high rates of inflation and the low exchange rate of its local currency, in addition to its endeavor to face the acute shortage of foreign exchange. In this context, the Egyptian relationship with Saudi Arabia is witnessing an unannounced apathy, and perhaps the Turkish rapprochement may be an alternative to it by pumping investments, which Turkish companies have pledged to in Egypt at a value of $500 million.

As for the second question: What is the impact of the development of the course of the relationship between Turkey and Egypt on the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES)? It is proven that Turkey, by virtue of its neighborhood with the AANES, does not hesitate to harm it, whether by military aggression or by mobilizing soft powers. To clarify this, Turkey is accusing it of threatening its southern borders. This is because the AANES has a reform project, and not for anything else. What is happening in Syria and Turkey now is that it is going through a crisis. It is not – as Turkey believes – a position assessment. The AANES’ project diagnoses the situation and gives treatment, while assessing the Turkish position expresses a vague vision, regardless of whether it is true or false. From this standpoint, Turkey attacked the AANES militarily twice, each time miscalculating as well, and it may never end, as long as it sees the truth from one perspective. Rather, it may go further than that, to drag this estimate, according to a dirty political game. It does not hesitate to do it, no matter how much it costs. In any case, it has repeatedly practiced it before, with both Finland and Sweden, during the signing of its NATO accession protocol. At that time, it required them to enter the alliance to describe the AANES as a “terrorist.” Turkey is good at using political blackmail with those who disagree with it, especially with five million residents of the AANES. It is expected that Turkey will use political blackmail, along with the Egyptian rapprochement as well. Turkey realizes that the Kurdish community in Egypt is large and has influence over the decision-making center. Turkey will try to dissuade Egypt from its position in support of the AANES. Except that he once again misjudges the situation. The Egyptian position stems from not aggravating the situation and following the path of dialogue and diplomatic talks, rather than adopting the path of confrontation. A good example of this is Egypt’s rejection of any possible Turkish aggression against the AANES areas in the past periods.

In sum, Turkey’s AKP, led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, may be able to reduce the level of tension with the countries of the region before the Turkish presidential elections scheduled for May 14, but what is certain is that it will not succeed in satisfying the opinion of the Turkish street, which is angry with its policies, the economic ones in particular, which put it on the brink of the abyss, especially with the repercussions of the devastating earthquake.