Analyses

Static and dynamic of earthquake’s impacts

“It was Qiyamah,” this is how the people described their terrifying night they spent after the regions of northwestern Syria and southern Turkey were exposed to an earthquake of 7.5 magnitude which resulted in thousands of victims and caused material damage to homes, facilities, and roads.

First of all, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hastened, within a few hours, to declare a state of emergency for three months in the ten states affected by the earthquake, the epicenter of which was in Kahramanmaraş, and declared that the ten states affected by the earthquake as well, are “disaster areas”. Similar to what Erdogan did, the Syrian Cabinet considered the affected areas in the governorates of Aleppo, Latakia, Hama, and Idlib to be disaster areas, but after five days.

It is appropriate for us to address what is meant by the “disaster area”, which is a political term related to the mechanism for requesting international relief aid, and it is subject to international standards that limit the powers of national authorities in how to dispose of this aid. Therefore, in the case of the affected areas, the international humanitarian organizations will have a role in entering and distributing aid, and thus independence. Based on the foregoing, both the Turkish and Syrian regimes play the same role in investing in the term “disaster areas” and politicizing humanitarian and relief aid, but each in its own way.

In the event of a devastating earthquake, Turkey is practicing political prostitution with brazen arrogance, while the Syrian regime is practicing political investment with extreme dexterity, but the question remains, how is this done?

From the first moment that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared that the earthquake-affected province of Kahramanmaraş was a disaster area, he started practicing political prostitution as he begged all countries of the world to extend a helping hand with rescue teams to his country. At the same time, he claims having “the largest rescue team in the world.” He also acknowledged his inability and failure to limit the disaster, confessing the existence of loopholes and the impossibility to prepare for a disaster like this. Erdogan also wants to beautify his actions by saying that he will revive the Kahramanmaraş region within a year, forgetting that he fails in everything he does.

On the other hand, Turkish opposition is clearly aware that Erdogan has led Turkey to the abyss, and it accuses him of failing to design buildings that do not adequately withstand such tremors. “If the rescue effort is mishandled and people get frustrated, there is a backlash,” said Mike Harris, founder of Cribstone Strategic Macro. Harris predicted the collapse of the Turkish lira in case Erdogan win power for a new term because there will be no confidence with an artificial scenario that will not last for a long time. As for the Turkish opposition leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, he held Erdogan responsible for the earthquake.

Erdogan had previously won on the rubble of the 1999 disaster; however, his opponents are preparing to overthrow him on the ruins of the tragedy of 2023, as the ability of Erdogan to respond to the repercussions of the devastating earthquake will determine the fate of his success or failure in the presidential elections.

As for the Syrian regime, it practices political investment in earthquakes with extreme dexterity, and presents itself as horses that cannot run due to the halter tied to it, as if it is powerless because of the sanctions. Is it possible to imagine that there is a head of state, four days after a devastating earthquake hits his country and records thousands of victims and injured, so that he appears to his people and the media smiling as if nothing had happened and his regime reluctantly declares four Syrian governorates as “disaster areas”?

The point of view includes that there is no way for the Syrian regime to escape from the hell of sanctions except by restoring some prestige and how to make the disaster an opportunity to engage in a battle with the “inhumane” West, as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said in Aleppo. Of course, there are indications of an UN-sponsored political deal with the Syrian regime. Indicators occurred days after the earthquake explain why the response in Syria was delayed? The features of this deal, according to previous data, were carried out under several pressures. It seems that aid-donor countries pressured the regime to raise the exchange rate of dollars received by them.

In turn, the Syrian regime did not immediately announce the areas of its control affected by the earthquake with the aim that the international and UN institutions would not be able to distribute aid without their interference in it, and would give it options for transporting aid without being limited to a mechanism (across the border). This is consistent with its approach of preferring to work through the state and its institutions regardless of its legality. The Syrian regime, after all these resounding losses that it suffered during the war, has no choice but to make artificial respiration for its collapsing economy, depending on the foreign remittances incoming to it in order to supply the Central Bank with foreign exchange.

The devastating earthquake reflects the fact that the parties to the conflict were not affected by the horror of the disaster in order to overcome their differences and seize the occasion for contact and communication for purely humanitarian purposes. The areas of influence of the armed factions loyal to Turkey, led by the opposition Syrian National Coalition (SNC), prevent the entry of aid from the Awn al-Dadat crossing in Manbij, and at the same time receive the aid convoy from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) and play on the Kurdish tendon by orders of the Turkish intelligence. Moreover, the UN says that Muhammad al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which controls Idlib, is also preventing the Salvation Government – HTS’ political wing – from entering aid into Idlib. As for the Syrian regime, it classifies the affected areas into two first degrees; one on the coast and inland where it is satisfied with what is happening, and the other in the north, calling them terrorists, although the tragedy for both regions is the same.

Perhaps it is useful to emphasize that Turkey and Syria deal with the earthquake incident in terms of passing rescue teams or relief aid on the basis of a chauvinistic racist principle, as although the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) has equipped aid convoys to provide relief to the affected areas, those areas are considered as for the Kurds and do not deserve sympathy or kindness. For example, aid is not distributed to the needy except based on the following question: “Are you Arab or Kurdish?” They do not provide assistance to those who say they are Kurds when asked to do so. Regardless of not allowing the entry of aid or the approval of the Syrian government and the opposition to enter it, the indisputable fact is that the Kurds are besieged by death from everywhere. It can be said that the governmental fear of the people, especially the Kurds, that followed the earthquake was more severe than the earthquake itself. The Kurds die twice, once at the hands of the earthquake and once at the hands of fascist governments, whether in Jindires, Afrin, or the neighborhoods of Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyeh in Aleppo city.

Since the moment of the earthquake on February 6, the AANES announced its readiness to support all the stricken areas of Syria without exception. It called on the international community to put pressure on all parties to open the crossings for aid to enter the areas affected by the earthquake. It issued a statement saying that its doors are “open to everyone” to make any contribution in the field of health, hospitals and care, and to receive those affected from outside its regions. Originally, everything that was said in pamphlets, analyzes, or political discourses by Turkey and Syria about national sovereignty and national security was just a lie and a soap bubble in front of a moment of truth in which the AANES revealed the extent of the failure of authoritarian governments. There is no doubt that the values of brotherhood among indigenous peoples are constant, while the vices and corruption of governments are shifting.

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