Turkish elections and possible scenarios
Turkish presidential elections are around the corner, and they have been set for May 14. It is said to be historic, decisive and essential elections for all political players on the Turkish geography, both the opposition and loyalists to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Alliances were formed represented by the opposition six-party table in the face of the AKP and the independent parties, each of whom will fight the election battle through the voters, where 56 million voters will go to cast their votes at the polls to choose who represents them, and the electoral battle will be competitive between the two parties.
The opposition begins its program by uncovering the internal, regional and international crises created by the AKP. On the internal level, the AKP fought the press, arrested many journalists, worked to combat expression of opinion, closed many newspapers, imprisoned political activists, and closed many schools and universities. On the economic level, the value of the Turkish lira reached low levels, and the prices of raw materials and consumer goods rose, inflation increased and the economic imbalance in the country severely affected the people. On the regional level, Turkey’s relationship with the Arab countries as a whole has deteriorated because of its interference in Syria, Libya, Egypt and Iraq by supporting the Muslim Brotherhood that is unacceptable to the peoples of the region, not to mention the fabrication of the crisis with neighboring Greece and threatening it. On the international level, it blackmailed the Europeans with the refugee card a lot and disagreed with the US in more than one area, perhaps the most prominent of which is the purchase of the Russian S-400 system. It also opposed Finland and Sweden to join NATO under various unacceptable pretexts; That is, it changed the compass of its foreign policy from zero problems to creating problems. All these practices and crises are electoral assets in the hands of the opposition against the AKP.
As for the AKP, it will present its program by listing its achievements as much as possible like how it developed the country, defended the rights of the Turkish people and protected Turkish national security. However, the final word remains for the current economic situation that has burdened the Turkish people, and this situation is not in the interest of the AKP based on opinion polls, questionnaires and the internal, regional and international positions, which indicates the inability of the AKP to win these elections. The elections for Erdogan are fateful ones because if he fails to reach the presidency, the gates of hell will open for him internally in the first place, because his period of rule carries with it many corruption files which will bring him closer to his inevitable end and put an end to Erdogan’s rule. Therefore, he is trying hard to take advantage of all his opportunities and invest them in his interest in the elections, and this catastrophe that ravaged the country is only an appropriate opportunity to play on it and benefit from it and also employ it as much as possible, but I think he is trying in vain because the amount of errors accumulated over the course of decades is sufficient to refute everything he and his hawks in the presidency used to claim and call for. The first of the possible scenarios for these elections is perhaps the victory of the opposition despite its weakness, the second is the disagreement among them because they are not at the heart of one man while Erdogan is alone on one front, and the third is Erdogan’s failure to hand over power in the event of the opposition’s victory, and bringing chaos to the country.
In this context, and in light of the policy that Erdogan pursues internally and externally, Turkey is heading towards chaos and instability, and it is not excluded that the country will witness what is called the spring of the peoples.
