Since the French left on April 17, 1946, Syria has gone through a series of chaos and military coups, then the period of unity with Egypt/1958-1961/ until the separation. The Baathist coup occurred on March 8, 1963 and the June 1967 war, then the Assad family ruled Syria from the coup on October 16, 1970 until December 8, 2024, when Bashar al-Assad made his shameful escape.

Who brought down Assad’s rule?

It seems that this great and rapid victory of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (al-Nusra) and its control over Damascus within ten days without any significant resistance is backed by a major global power, and all observers believe that Israel and America are behind it, especially after the end of Iranian power and its arms in Lebanon and Syria. Therefore, Turkey has a secondary role in benefiting from this and passing its agendas. At first, Turkey distanced itself and expressed its fear when “HTS” took control of Aleppo – and Russia and Iran then They are still strong in Syria. It became clear from the Doha meeting between the foreign ministers of (Turkey, Iran and Russia) on 12/7/2024 according to the Astana track, to be joined by the UN envoy to Syria (Geir Pedersen), the community agreed on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria, and urged dialogue between the Syrian government and the opposition, while the latter had taken control of Hama after Aleppo and was advancing towards Homs and Damascus. Therefore, until the moment of the fall of Damascus, the Turkish president was hoping to meet with the Syrian regime and agree on handing over the opposition and fighting the autonomous administration together. However, after the fall of Damascus and the escape of Assad, Turkey adopted the victory and attributed the credit to itself, and began pushing its mercenaries towards the autonomous administration to occupy new areas of Tal Rifaat, alShahba and Manbij, and threaten Kobani, the city that brought down the myth of ISIS. Celebrating the fall of Damascus

After the successive fall of Syrian cities and villages at the hands of the armed opposition through an operation called (Deterrence of Aggression) led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), it was crowned at dawn on Sunday 12/8/2024 with the overthrow of Bashar alAssad’s regime. The Syrian people celebrated in all their sects except for the loyalists and beneficiaries – after 50 years of oppression, humiliation and tyranny under the darkness of Baath rule. The people won, rejoiced and breathed a sigh of relief after the fall of the Baath government, Assad and his statues, so that celebrations spread in Umayyad Square in Damascus and all Syrian cities. News agencies reported that Bashar al-Assad had left Damascus to an unknown destination, and it later became clear that he had sought refuge in Russia via the Russian ” Hmeimim ” airport. The world’s anger at the brutality of the defunct regime was increased by storming and opening prisons, especially the infamous Sednaya prison, liberating prisoners and seeing the remains of living dead people, as well as finding many mass graves.

Arab and international reactions:

To discuss developments in Syria, a meeting was held

On December 13 in the Jordanian city of Aqaba, days after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The meeting was attended by the Arab League’s expanded contact group, and the following day was joined by Turkey, the United States, the European Union, Britain, and the United Nations. At the end of the meeting, the participants called for a comprehensive Syrian dialogue and the necessity of forming a comprehensive Syrian government that represents all components of the people. They also condemned the Israeli incursion into southern Syria, and found that UN Resolution 2254 was no longer valid after HTS – classified as a “terrorist” group – took control of Damascus, and that a new resolution was needed from the UN Security Council to take into account developments in this regard. The United States called for Syria not to pose a threat to its neighbors, and demanded the preservation of the rights of minorities and women.

On Tuesday 17/12, the Security Council held its first meeting after the fall of Assad, and announced its strong commitment to Syria’s sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity. The Council called for a Syrian political process that meets the aspirations of citizens and is based on the principles of Resolution 2254 in a democratic manner, while the UN Secretary-General for Syria, Geir Pedersen, addressed the meeting and said: Many are concerned about the future^[1] Some Arab countries (Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates) expressed their concern about the control of the Muslim Brotherhood, supported by Turkey and Qatar and with a background that goes back to the Al-Qaeda organization, over the situation in Syria, and asked the countries of the world not to rush to recognize it, and to wait until the dust storm of ( HTS ) control over the situation in Syria has settled and its intentions are known. As for Israel, which claims that it has the greatest credit for toppling the Assad regime by ending Syria’s main ally, Iran, in Lebanon and Syria, it fears that Assad’s weapons and equipment will be used by a radical group against it, so it completely destroyed them, positioned itself in Mount Hermon and expanded to the south of Damascus in anticipation of any emergency.

Ambitions and the key Turkish role:

US President-elect Trump said that Turkey was behind the events in Syria, and he said about the Turkish president that he is a very smart man, and that Turkey carried out an “unfriendly” takeover without killing a large number of lives in Syria – although he wanted it to be during his term – and what the Turks had been waiting for for thousands of years was achieved. Trump considered that Turkey would have the ability to control the course of events and hold the keys in Syria, stressing that there are many unclear

matters in Syria; does Trump’s statement in the phrase (unfriendly) – which can be interpreted in many ways – indicate that Turkey has acted alone without consulting America, and wants to control Syria alone, or is he – Trump – comfortable with Turkey’s role with Israel in weakening Iran and the retreat of the Russians for benefits in Ukraine? Is it reasonable that the two countries have nothing to do with this? All analyses indicate that they (America and Israel) gave the green light to remove suspicion that they had dealt with a force classified on the global terrorism list and whose leader was wanted. President Biden said about him: “Let’s see actions, not words.” It seems that ” Al-Julani ” had promised them that he would change his extremist Islamic ideology, and promised them to establish a civil state that respects diversity and human rights. Here, Erdogan rushed to send his foreign minister and intelligence chief to Damascus to gain benefits and block the path to Kurdish entitlements. Will Erdogan clash with the Syrian Democratic Forces”SDF” – the force allied with America – in a comprehensive war, and will this contradiction be resolved in some way after Trump comes to power on January 20, 2025? After the fall of Damascus, we see how Erdogan pushed his mercenaries to occupy Tal Rifaat, al-Shahba, and then Manbij to commit crimes against humanity there, and today he is threatening liberated Kobani, the city that Erdogan had hoped would fall into the hands of ISIS.

The Turkish regime does not hide its ambitions in northern Syria and is working by all means to annex it, such as the Sanjak of Alexandretta, and dreams of achieving the National Pact. Today, it has been given the golden opportunity to intervene and impose the Turkish identity – not only on the occupied areas – but also on its educational system in all of Syria, let alone economic dominance and the benefits of investments and reconstruction. It announces its readiness to form and train the army and even prepare the social contract and constitution. Its threat to the autonomous administration in northern and eastern Syria is only a prelude to new occupations that may reach northern Iraq. Will the new government emerging in Damascus be able to put an end to Turkey and find the appropriate solution to expel the Turkish army and dissolve Turkey’s mercenaries from the so-called (National Army)!?

From the Salvation Government in Idlib to the Caretaker Government of Syria

Jolani ” regime that was in Idlib, headed by “Mohammad alBashir”, would be applied to Syria itself, with the same people, method and mentality to conduct business until the beginning of March 2025 without including many of the opposition spectrums and different Syrian components. When we look at the government formation – even if it is temporary to conduct business – we find that it is of one spectrum and not well thought out; for example, how can an agricultural engineer become Minister of Defense while excluding hundreds of experienced officers from the defectors?! Likewise, how can the “SDF” forces, which possess the structure of the organized army and which defeated the terrorist organization ISIS, be excluded? Likewise, how can the brother of the operations commander be appointed Minister of Health? And appointing only one woman in the government formation, and she is for the Women’s Affairs Office and it is natural that it should not be a man -? It seems that most of the ministers are bearded and have a strict Islamic cultural background. Of course; This government is temporary and is in preparation for a transitional government – perhaps a government of technocrats – under international supervision, as announced by the Aqaba meeting in Jordan. How will Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham become a new authority and move from a group classified as terrorist – where many extremist and violent actions were seen and ISIS slogans were on the shoulders of some of its members to ruling a state seeking international support and recognition?! Will al-Sharaa be able to convince some of its extremist factions to moderate? Will the Arab visits, visits by international representatives and a high-ranking delegation from the US State Department to Damascus, the opening of some embassies, and the cancellation of the US reward for anyone who provides information about the location of “Abu Muhammad al-Julani ” be a prelude to removing his name and his organization from the terrorist list, and then spreading security and prosperity so that the displaced from all over the world can return? This is what the coming days will reveal to us.

The Challenges facing the management of “Al-Sharaa

After highlighting his charismatic and pragmatic personality in the transformations, it is easy for Sharaa to change his appearance in civilian clothes, but the most difficult thing is to transform from the group mentality to the state-building mentality, and from the policy and style of the Salvation Government in Idlib to a government for all parts of Syria with all its sects and diversity. Will Al-Sharaa be able to get rid of violence, extremism and radicalism in implementing Sharia – as we see in the presence of extremist non-Syrian factions, whose members may be granted Syrian citizenship as a reward – and oblige all Syrian societies with diverse ethnicities and cultures to implement that Sharia, or will he respect the specificities and leave the free choice to the other components?! Syria cannot be run as an Islamic emirate – as Sharia has declared that Syria is not like Afghanistan – after its flag appeared behind Bashir’s prime minister, in addition to Islamic jihadist chants in the morning of elementary school students, forcing students and professors of the Faculty of Medicine at Damascus University to perform the funeral prayer in absentia, the issue of mahrams accompanying women and head coverings, burning the Christmas tree in Al-Suqaylabiyah on Christmas Eve , and the recent events witnessed in the Aleppo and coastal areas in the assault on the Alawite sect and the fear of it turning into a sectarian civil war in Syria . Can the mentality of (HTS) be changed as easily as its leader changed his name from (Al-Julani to AlSharaa) under the pretext of his advanced age and his experience as he declared to the American network (CNN)? Is his pragmatism temporary until he gains legitimacy and then returns to implementing strict Sharia?

International observers are cautiously considering their future actions in the transition from authoritarian rule to democracy; the revolution in Syria essentially began under the slogan of freedom and democracy, and the Syrian people have made great sacrifices and thousands of martyrs for this purpose.

Anticipation and anxiety

Syrians will no longer accept to live and move from one tyrannical rule to another, as the saying goes: “as Who runs from bad to wrose.” There is a cautious anticipation among all international observers, Syrian components and sects, and women regarding the nature of the new ruling system in Syria; no comforting words such as democracy, human rights, and freedom of opinion have been heard from the new leaders. Is appointing a woman – with a man’s mentality – to manage the Women’s Affairs Office sufficient to achieve women’s rights and freedom!?

So, the new rulers must take into consideration that Syrian society is ethnically, religiously and culturally diverse, and what was being implemented in the “Emara of Idlib” – despite the emergence of opposition to it there as well – cannot be applied to all parts of Syria. The other open-minded components and what they hear about the practices of officials in some provinces who restrict the lives of citizens, especially women, make them reject the violent behavior of the armed factions, especially in the first days and the security chaos and instability that they witnessed, and the contradiction between the contradictory improvised decisions related to community life; from imposing conditions on movement, women’s dress, modesty, work, and non-mixing, especially the rejection of female judges, and other decisions calling for not touching community freedom within morals, and that personal freedom is guaranteed for everyone; therefore, people are now living in anxiety and fear of what is coming North and East Syria Region Autonomuos _adminstration in North and East Syria has always called for dialogue, and for the rulers of Damascus whoever they are – to stay away from the policy of exclusion and threats, and that Syria must be for all Syrians while respecting the privacy of each component, and achieving justice for all without monopolizing the decision and excluding others, and that the policy of peaceful solution, dialogue and understandings is what will lead the Syrians to safety; since the beginning of the revolution, the regions of North and East Syria have adopted ( the third approach ) between the regime and the so-called Brotherhood opposition, and have struggled to defend security and civil peace against all aggressors, and its people have fought ISIS and presented thousands of martyrs, and defeated ISIS and saved humanity from its brutality. Its democratic Autonomuosadministration adopted the paradigm of the “democratic nation”, brotherhood of peoples and pluralism, respect for all its components and achieving justice for all, and to prove that it shares the joy with the Syrians, although the Kurdish people had declared a revolution against the Baath regime since 2004, while others had been praising the regime for many years, and the areas of the self-administration had been liberated from the regime’s control since the declaration of its revolution in 2012, and to prove also that it, with its protective forces ” SDF”, seeks to liberate and unify the homeland and does not call for separation; the Autonomuos-administration decided to raise the flag of independence over its official institutions and celebrated it, and it does not cease calling for the unity of Syrian lands. Therefore; The new rulers in Damascus, in order to build a modern, democratic, free state, are required to agree with the Autonomusadministration, the SDF, and all components, respect specificities, move away from strict central rule, and accept that each region manages its affairs in a manner that suits its communities, under a single, inclusive Syrian identity. They are also required to hasten to hold a broad national conference that includes all segments of Syrian society without excluding anyone, in order to discuss these matters without external dictates.

So far, there have been no clashes between the Military

Operations Administration, the SDF, and the Community Protection Forces in Aleppo and the rest of the regions. Rather, there have been friendly understandings regarding handing over the airport and cooperating together to evacuate the civilians besieged in al-Shahba, as well as handing over the administration of Deir ez-zor city. However, some statements from the new leadership regarding handing over weapons and the necessity of extending its control over all parts of the country do not comfort the residents of the areas of the Autonomous Administration, which sees itself, along with its protective military force, as part of Syria, and that it will agree with the current Damascus government when an agreement is reached on the form of the new system within a democratic constitution that guarantees the basic rights of the Kurdish people, who represent the second largest ethnic group in the country.

The International demands from the new rulers in Syria As a result of Syria’s geopolitical location, its influence on neighboring countries, regional and global powers, and the contradiction of internal and external interests, it seems that the overall demands that the powers and the international community hope for in order for Syria to become a model for change in the new Middle East are focused on the following points:

1–Syria should be a pluralistic state that includes all Syrian parties and components without discrimination, as a way to ensure stability, especially the rights of the Kurds and other Syrian components.

-2-To have Syria for all Syrians, provide equal opportunities for all citizens, participate in political life, and create a healthy environment for the return of refugees.

-3-Ensuring women’s freedom in education and political work and protecting them in the new Syrian society.

-4-Syria should be a secular state, separating religious and political authority from each other, to ensure freedom of belief and expression.

-5-Writing a new constitution that includes the rights of all components and sects.

-6-Building a unified Syrian army, free from militia and sectarian factions, under a central command.

-7- Completely eliminating Iran’s role in Syria, and ensuring that Syria does not become a haven for terrorists and extremist groups. -8- After the transitional period ends, free elections must be held under the supervision of the United Nations.

Will the new rulers be able to move away from Turkish dictates, move from absolute central rule to pluralism, recognize the democratic Autonomuos-administration in northern and eastern Syria, as well as in the Syrian coast and south, and respect the diverse specificities in reviving the heritage of those components within the right to freedom of belief and expression, and prevent religious and sectarian discrimination!?

Quick tasks required of new rulers

As a result of the rapid collapse and fall of the oppressive regime in Syria, and the joy of the fighters and all the Syrian people at the demise of the tyrant, a state of general chaos and security chaos occurred in the country, as well as violations and uncivilized manifestations against some segments of society. This must be stopped by appointing civil police officers to maintain security and deal with citizens with all respect and knowledge, and removing armed manifestations from the cities.

In order for us to be able to say that the revolution has triumphed and that security, safety and justice will prevail throughout Syria after the tyrant’s rule has been removed, and to heal the rift that the war in Syria has caused between all the diverse Syrian ethnic and religious components, the (Military and Political Operations Department) must do the following:

First: Regarding the system of government

Practical steps must be taken away from the jihadist ideology and the Islamic group , specifically not imposing it on the rest of the Syrian geography and the various and diverse components, as well as working to not link the parties to the center in a strong and strict manner, and not practicing extreme centralization, and granting powers to manage their internal affairs themselves, meaning that the system of government in the country is a decentralized parliamentary system that is harmonious between geographical and administrative decentralization, and that there is agreement on the name of the state, the flag and the national anthem so that it expresses all components, and that the extreme Islamic Sharia is not imposed by force – like the mullahs’ system in

Iran – so that the rights and freedom of women are respected, as Mr. Ahmed al-Sharaa said: “Syria will not be Afghanistan” in reference to the freedom of women’s education and others, and that this be established in a new constitution.

Second: Regarding armed factions and the establishment of a unified Syrian army:

The Military Operations Department should call on all armed factions (especially in northern Syria under Turkish power) – which commit crimes and violate human rights – to integrate into a new, unified Syrian army and abide by the instructions and directives of the new leadership, and follow the interests and agenda of the new Syrian administration away from Turkish dictates. Dialogues should also be held with the leadership of the SDF on how to join the Syrian army; it includes more than one hundred thousand fighters, and they are well trained and organized – it is a fundamental pillar of the international coalition – and a disciplined force that follows a unified leadership council, and has protected its areas for more than ten years with all its various units, and it is possible that these forces will be the nucleus of the new Syrian army.

Third: Regarding Autonomuos-administrations (local and community)

In order to be able to say that the revolution has triumphed, the new leadership must exercise flexibility and openness to dialogue to find political solutions to the various issues of society – after many years of repercussions of the war – and it must begin by recognizing the right of the Kurdish people to learn and practice their mother tongue and consider it the second official language in the country and establish this in the new constitution, and their right to choose the appropriate system for them according to the social contract agreed upon by all other components present in those areas, and respect the privacy of the rest of the groups on the other Syrian geography in their right – through supraconstitutional principles – to manage and organize their societies in the appropriate manner to preserve their heritage and culture, from the Turkmen, Armenians, Christians, Yazidis , Druze, Alawites and others, to follow the structure of the system of regions, states or governorates (according to what the Syrians agree upon in the General National Congress).

Fourth: The comprehensive national identity

Some news has shown that the new government is holding consultations to prepare for holding a national dialogue conference to choose a transitional council to draft a new constitution for Syria, but the method of choosing the invitees has not yet been announced. It must include representation and participation of all Syrian components without exception, to chart the future of the country, as repeatedly announced by the leader of the new Syrian administration, Mr. Ahmed al-Sharaa. It is also necessary to acknowledge the principles of equal citizenship at the conference and adopt a temporary constitution (social contract) until a permanent constitution is written – during the transitional period, which may be long. This contract guarantees equality among all Syrian citizens, regardless of nationality, religion, or sect, and recognizes the ethnic, cultural, and linguistic diversity in the country. Society had its say in the demonstration in Umayyad Square in Damascus on the secularism of the state and women’s participation in politics, which was called for by the “Civil Youth Gathering” on 12/20 of this December to demand a civil democratic state. The demonstrators raised banners on which the following slogans were written: (We want a democratic state, not a dichotomy – Towards a state of law and citizenship – No free homeland without free women). ²The social contract must emphasize the political, economic, and social rights of all components in a way that guarantees the effective participation of all in managing their private and public affairs throughout the country; so that the specific ethnic and cultural identity is not abolished and melted in exchange for the supreme, comprehensive national identity

² Syrian Observatory for human right

Fifth: Regarding the issue of resolving the Kurdish issue and the model of democratic Autonomuos-administration

Since the Kurds are the second largest ethnic group in the country, and are a historical and fundamental component of the Syrian fabric – as the new leader confirmed – then they cannot be viewed as a minority – basically the term minorities is derogatory – but they have a long history and contributed to the civilizations of the region, and they have a great deal of experience in confronting all colonizers and invaders and in building and establishing Syria’s independence, therefore; it is necessary to engage in dialogue and understanding with them in a way that guarantees their basic rights within the Syrian homeland shared by all, and that they have a role in building a modern and new constitution – not patching up the old one – in a way that reflects their social, political, military and economic weight. Therefore; it is necessary to engage in a quick and direct dialogue with the representatives of the current self-administration in northern and eastern Syria, to find a formula for integrating those regions into the process of the country’s unity and building the development and economic process to put the vehicle of construction and reform in Syria on the starting track towards reconciliation, tolerance and civil peace in society.

Based on the developments, the Autonomous Administration in

North and East Syria is requested to hold its Kurdish National Conference, arrange its internal affairs, and form its

comprehensive delegation with all components in North and East Syria as soon as possible, and state its demands to the new administration and the international community. The SDF must expedite reaching an understanding with the new administration in Damascus and reach the nature of the relationship between them, to put an end to the Turkish threats dominating the Syrian lands and affairs, and to block its pretext for blatant interference in Syria’s internal affairs, so that the successful democratic Autonomous Administration will be a modern model that can be generalized to all Syrian lands.

Sixth: Regarding Turkish threats and its interference in Syrian affairs:

Because the winds of change in the region are blowing in favor of the Kurds, the Turkish regime, which has a Kurdish phobia, stands in the way of those winds, and uses all means to prevent the Kurds from obtaining their just rights. The Turkish state does not stop its threats, and it was desperate to meet Assad for that reason. Today, it is one of the first countries rushing to go to Damascus, and urging the Damascus government to end the Autonomous Administration and the SDF, under the pretext of establishing a buffer zone along its border with Syria. Turkey sees the presence of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as a threat to its national security – although the SDF has not fired a single shot at Turkey and sees it as terrorist and separatist, although neither the SDF nor the MSD (the political representative of the SDF), nor the Autonomous Administration – which includes all the communities and components there – have any agendas for separation or division. It is the one that protected its regions and the world from the terrorist attacks of ISIS and eliminated them geographically, and sacrificed the best of its youth for that purpose. Rather, it sees itself as part of the Syrian homeland and its protection forces are supportive of the new Syrian army, and the rich economy of its regions belongs to all the Syrian people and will be distributed among them fairly and equally (as its leaders declare). The neighboring Turkish state must move away from the policy of guardianship and domination over how to build and establish the new Syria emerging from the horror of its destructive war and drowning in its problems, and Turkey must not act as a high commissioner dictating its terms and imposing its hegemony and neo-Ottoman agendas. The best thing for Turkey to do is to withdraw from the Syrian territories it occupies and leave the Syrians to build their homeland as they wish and solve their problems themselves without foreign interference.