The Rapidly Unfolding Events in the Middle East

Even though some things are slowly becoming clearer in the Middle East, it’s still tough to predict how events will unfold in the coming days. However, what is truly agreed upon is that a new form of World War III has already started, and it began at the start of this century. The recent events that have erupted in North Africa and the Middle East since the beginning of the second decade of this century are a prime example of that. Perhaps the events of September 11, 2001, that hit the United States can be seen as the spark that ignited this conflict. Following that, events came in a timeline, starting with the American invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 under the guise of fighting global terrorism, which was framed around radical Islamic extremism represented by Al-Qaeda, which established its base in “Tora Bora” in Afghanistan. The U.S. then divided the world into the orderly and the disorderly; this was a clear reference to the American law in practice: “Anyone who isn’t with us is against us.” Consequently, the second target was Iraq after Saddam Hussein’s rebellion against the existing capitalist world order, which had a sole superpower with no military or economic competition. Thus, the decision to topple the Ba’ath regime in Iraq in 2003 was purely a Western (American-British) decision. Things carried on like this until the end of 2010, when the Arab Spring or the Spring of Nations erupted, which was an inevitable result due to the stagnation of solutions and political reforms among the leaderships of the countries that were hit in North Africa, namely Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and somewhat Algeria. This unrest then moved to the Middle East, especially Yemen and Syria. Naturally, during transitional phases of governance, chaos prevails, leading to an inability to control societies and channel the flood of youthful rebellion demanding their legitimate rights for a better future.

Israel – Gaza War:

It would appear that, the situation in the Middle East wasn’t ideal before October 7, 2023, but what actually happened “made matters worse” and complicated matters even more than they already were, especially since the axis supporting Hamas fell into the trap of directly engaging in a war with consequences that could be unbearable on all fronts (political, military, economic, etc.). As a result, this axis has been embarrassed as much as possible by the Western camp. Iran, as the main supporter of all ideologically and doctrinally related movements, has found itself in a difficult situation. Therefore, any mistake in making a crucial decision about whether to engage in a full-scale war might not be in its favor, considering the following points:

– The bombing of the Iranian embassy in the Syrian capital, Damascus, is a clear and explicit warning to Iran about the possibility of being targeted in its own turf.

– The mysterious circumstances surrounding the death of former president Ibrahim Raisi indicate that Iran has been unable to develop its technology as necessary and shows its inability to provide the needed protection for its second-in-command.

– The assassination of the head of Hamas’s political bureau on its own territory serves as a clear sign of internal security breaches.

– The security breach of Hezbollah with hackers infiltrating its wireless systems and the inability to control them signals a lack of real technological strength in maintaining its database.

– The hesitation or delay in Iran’s response might primarily stem from its awareness of its size and natural weight in confronting the West and to preserve, as much as possible, the progress in its nuclear program. This was all evident in a clear statement from leader Ali Khamenei saying, “Hezbollah may lose this round, but it will definitely win the war,” which could be seen as a veiled or preliminary indication that Iran will not engage in any direct war, even alongside Hezbollah (the strongest and closest ally ideologically and doctrinally).

The Palestinian Hamas movement may have belatedly realized the dilemma it has placed itself in, especially in light of Arab and Islamic neglect, and the indifference from the international community regarding serious or effective negotiations or mediations to halt the Israeli war machine; matters have hardly gone beyond mere denunciations here and timid statements there.

Israeli escalation in Southern Lebanon: 

Israel and its military leaders might have received more of the West’s green light to geographically expand the war in the Middle East. This is evident as Israel directs the course of the war toward northern Israel and southern Lebanon, with its war machine focusing on:

– Relying entirely on airpower to hit the infrastructure and vital areas of Hezbollah.

– Creating more chaos in the Middle East and opening new fronts to prolong the war.

– Provoking Iran further and trying to drag it into direct conflict, thereby creating situation and opportunity to strike at the infrastructure of its nuclear facilities.

– Taking advantage of the time factor before the upcoming US elections in November, with the possibility of the Democrats winning, which could lead to pressure on them to stop the war.

On the other hand, the Lebanese side represented by Hezbollah relies on:

– Ground warfare and tunnels, utilizing the geographical terrain it operates in.

– Sympathy from Western civil societies regarding humanitarian cases and displacement, exploiting on human emotions.

– Creating a sense of Islamic and Arab solidarity and rallying forces against opposing ideologies and beliefs.

Syria amid all that’s happening around: 

The regime in Damascus remains a passive observer to everything around it, stuck in a vicious cycle, waiting to see what will happen regarding its supporters in their wars. The Russians, as its primary international backers, are preoccupied with their war against neighboring Ukraine, which is, of course, logistically and morally supported by EU countries and the US. Thus, the Russian side is effectively living a state of (covert) global war on its territory and that of Ukraine.

Iran, at this moment, is experiencing its worst diplomatic and political condition regionally and internationally, especially with Israel increasingly embarrassing it before its allies and local partners (notably Hamas and Hezbollah). This embarrassment is compounded by painful blows to Iranian personnel, exemplified by the killing of its military leaders and advisors on Syrian soil, and a direct breach of Iranian security in the assassination of the Hamas Executive Office leader in the heart of its capital.

Due to the preoccupation of both main blocs and players, the so-called normalization process with neighboring Turkey has been neglected. This was at its peak before the recent Turkish elections held last spring, where the Justice and Development Party achieved a victory that felt like a defeat. Consequently, tensions still prevail in the relations between the leaders of both regimes, even on a political and diplomatic level. The withdrawal of the Syrian delegation, led by the foreign minister, from the Arab ministers’ summit right when the Turkish foreign minister began his speech, is clear evidence of the political stances remarked in this regard.

The Iraqi mediation between the two regimes has, until now, remained largely theoretical, especially since there are outstanding issues between the Iraqi and Turkish regimes, such as water resources and Turkish military points in Southern Kurdistan, and blatant interference in Iraq’s internal affairs. Thus, Iraqi mediation might only serve to transfer messages between the two parties without playing a leading or essential role in the rapprochement process.

With the drums of war sounding in southern Lebanon, the Syrian regime faces a real test in welcoming the Syrians that they were refugees in Lebanon, especially with the worsening of the internal economic crisis, the collapse of the local currency, and the complete destruction of infrastructure in Syria. Therefore, will the regime be able to cope with the current conditions? Will it attempt to communicate with internal parties to find possible solutions, specifically the possibility of connecting with the Democratic Autonomous Administration that manages Northern and Eastern Syria? Or will it stubbornly treat all who govern Northern and Eastern Syria and Northwest Syria as one and the same, branding them as terrorist movements and collaborators with the West and occupying countries, and replaying its worn-out record about rallying forces against conspiracy and occupation, playing on Arab emotions… etc.?

Turkey, as an Islamic and regional state, and its positions regarding everything that’s happening:

It’s no longer a secret that Turkey after the recent elections is not the same as before, especially its president Erdoğan, whose sparkle has faded due to his consecutive losses both domestically and internationally. It seems he will finish what remains of his rule in this level of political dullness. The Turkish side, as in every instance, has been trying to tap into Islamic emotions and appeal to simple Muslims; sometimes denouncing actions and other times issuing hollow threats, merely playing a game of posturing. He’s no longer voicing even those political stances against Israel as he used to. With the anniversary of the October 7 War approaching, Turkey has not cut its economic or diplomatic ties with Israel, hasn’t welcomed a single refugee, nor sent the required aid to the Palestinians. On the contrary, it is preoccupied with the Syrian file, the normalization process with Damascus, and attempts to rid itself of the refugees. They are trying to deal with armed mercenaries in northwest Syria by turning them against each other after their failed transfers to Karabakh, Libya, and Niger.

The United States and Qatar:

The two main players in all the chaos in the Middle East are the United States (as the world’s economic and military leader) and Qatar (as a small intelligence state for the British kingdom and a primary intermediary in conflicts between warring parties). The secret negotiations that took place over the years between the US and the Afghan Taliban on its territory are a clear indication of this, accompanied by a highly professional, targeted media campaign to shape conditions for both war and peace, escalation and de-escalation. Qatar, as a regional state with a strong economy supported by the West, plays a fundamental role in every dilemma the region faces.

The United States is experiencing a state of “temporary hibernation” with a massive electoral lethargy, postponing everything until after the presidential election results. Will the next four years be an extension of the Democrats’ policy that began with Barack Obama, followed by his vice president Joe Biden, and then Biden’s vice president Kamala Harris (who seems to have the best odds according to polling from specialized research centers)? Or will the world perhaps witness four years of Republican temperament with former President Donald Trump? Thus, with the endless support for Israel (militarily, logistically, diplomatically, and even within Security Council sessions activating the veto), it becomes clear that the United States appears not to be serious in playing a genuine mediating role to end the current conflicts.