Turkish goal of restructuring northern Syria

Events in Syria are accelerating at various levels indicating to the existence of upcoming political changes that may draw new features of the Syrian crisis and determine the fate of Syria as a state. Taking a comprehensive look at the current conditions and developments, the Syrian scene appears to have become clearer, especially if we follow the recent rapid steps in northern Syria, we will notice as if Turkey is realizing something that it has missed, or senses changes, or knows of the existence of a new international plan in Syria, and seeks to use every second of its time to achieve its ambitions in Syria and prepare for the next stage. To realize the reality of recent Turkish movements in the occupied areas, from imposing the Turkish language, dealing with the Turkish lira, and Turkifying the names of the villages, cities and towns, in addition to announcing the appointment of a single governor for all the occupied areas, we have to clarify some of the ongoing developments in the Syrian arena in general and the Turkish interpretation of these developments in particular. The Syrian south, especially Suwayda Governorate, has been witnessing a wide popular movement and demonstrations for nearly two weeks that clearly call for the overthrow of the Assad regime, which resurrect the Syrian people who aspire to get out of a crisis that started as a revolution and turned, after the rise of political Islam and external interventions, into projects of regional and international powers. One of the project is the Turkish-backed Muslim Brotherhood through which Turkey has aimed at restoring the Ottoman Sultanate, so that it embraced what was called the Syrian opposition and refined it to suit its project. As a result, the salafists and the Muslim Brotherhood dominated the leadership of the political and military platforms and remove the democratic and secular forces from the forefront of the Syrian opposition where the so-called Syrian National Coalition (SNC) and the Syrian National Army (SNA) occupied that forefront of both the political and military aspects. Both the SNC and the SNA shifted their goals from overthrowing the regime to being hostile to the Kurdish people, minorities and non-Sunni sects. They have turned into mercenaries for Turkey to fight the Kurds and destroy the democratic experience in western Kurdistan (northeast Syria). Following the slogans raised in the new movement that appeared in Suwayda indicates the desire generated among the national minorities and the non-Sunni religious sects in seeing a new and decentralized Syria. The desire of founding a decentralized Syria is in harmony with the democratic project in Northeast Syria, which has proven, through its activity during the years of the Syrian crisis, that it is the most appropriate and the most viable and effective project on the ground for the future of Syria. Rejecting the Muslim Brotherhood-backed opposition by Suwayda movement refers to the fact that this opposition has been stripped and exposed due to its ideology that eliminates any party in difference with it, whether ethnic, religious, sectarian or intellectual. Such an opposition also failed to market itself as a national opposition after it has proven in the past years through its occupation of Afrin, Serê Kani (Ras al-Ain), Girê Spi (Tel Abyad), Jarablus, al-Bab, and other areas and their daily human rights violations against the Kurdish people and the components of their areas of control, in addition to plundering, looting, imposition of royalties, and systematic demographic change, that it is nothing but the Janissaries of the Turkish Sultan Erdogan in fulfilling his colonial charter. Therefore, the continuation of the new movement in the south and the presence of the democratic project in Northeast Syria may lead to the crystallization of a real national opposition that will be the final nail in the coffin of the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey’s mercenaries, and their loss of any role in shaping the future of Syria. If we analyze the popular movement in Suwayda from the point of view of conspiracy, we do not rule out the existence of a desire on the part of the regime itself to prepare the ground for imposing self-administration on the Syrian coast through the movement in Suwayda and their demands for decentralization.

US moves increase

Among the developments in the Syrian arena is also the increase in the American military and political movement in the country. Late in August, US Central Command commander, Michael Kurilla, and former US Secretary of Defense, Christopher Miller, visited Northeast Syria and met with military and civilian leaders and called for supporting the civil administration and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to ensure the elimination of terrorism. The visits, which come at a time of the escalating American-Russian accusation of harassment and military buildups in Deir ez-Zor by the Global Coalition and Iran with its allies, are an indication of increasing American interest in the region and signs of the crystallization of an American vision regarding the Middle East and Syria.

Syria to be divided

The international and regional powers that intervened in the Syrian crisis according to their agendas and strategic interests have divided the country according to their agendas and depending on the local Syrian forces, which in turn found that they have consensus with those countries according to their goals and objectives in Syria. For example, the so-called Syrian opposition embraced Turkey as they both had a common goal in overthrowing the regime and building a Sunni-Brotherhood state in Syria, but after their failure to achieve the goal, they turned to fighting the Kurds and occupying their northern and northeastern areas. As a result, they managed through invasions in 2016, 2018 and 2019, to occupy large Kurdish-majority areas of northern Syria.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) was formed in 2015 as a unified national military force for all Syrians, bringing together Arabs, Kurds, Syriacs, and all other components that have a common goal with the Global Coalition to fight ISIS, especially after the battles of Kobani 2014 and the efforts of the two parties to end ISIS from the region, as they have liberated vast areas Hasakah, Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor and parts of Aleppo from ISIS and established the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria according to a social contract that guarantees the rights of all components in the region.

Add to this, it is most likely that there are Russian-American understandings about Syria that may lead to the formation of new administrations, including the autonomous administration in southern Syria (Suwayda), specifically as the Druze community that finds itself in a hard-line Sunni environment that does not accept others. This may be part of an American project that unites it and al-Tanf garrison. Also, an  autonomous administration may be formed on the Syrian coast to protect the Alawites from the Muslim Brotherhood, and it will be under long-term Russian influence. As for Damascus, it will continue being the capital of the de-centralized Syrian state, followed by the rest of the Syrian areas, which will be under the Iranian influence.  

Therefore, when we mentioned that the accelerating Turkish moves in northern Syria and its acceleration in achieving demographic change, canceling any Kurdish character in those areas, and Turkifying everything in those areas, it is a calculation for the divisive future of Syria and the imposition of a region belonging to it on the Syrian north.