Throes of forming government in Iraq and prospect of solution

The Iraqi arena is witnessing a political crisis that may be the first of its kind since the fall of the Baathist regime in 2003 which turned into an armed conflict between the supporters of the Sadrist Movement and the Coordination Framework following the continuous failure to reach the formation of a national coalition government.

After the Sadrist Movement won the last parliament elections held in October 2021 by obtaining 73 seats out of a total of 329, Iraq entered a political impasse due to the failure of the Sadrist Movement to form a majority government by itself.

The failure to reach an agreement further complicated the crisis with the insistence of the pro-Iranian Coordination Framework to use the method of consensus followed in previous sessions, which led to a rise in violence and internal strikes and the eruption of armed attacks between supporters of the Sadrist Movement and those of the Coordination Framework throughout the country, in addition to the closure of oil fields and casualties on both sides. These existing differences had a significant impact on the security and economic reality of the Iraqi people who are still suffering from severe crises in securing basic services despite the enormous Iraqi wealth, and despite the many attempts by them to express their dissatisfaction with the political class, but they were confronted with the fact that there is no change to the status quo due to several international and regional factors. The formation of the Iraqi government is not the product of a pure Iraqi will, and this is what experiences have proven in the formation of previous Iraqi governments.

These competing and conflicting forces in Iraq do not allow the existence of political entities with a majority that contradict their interests, led by Iran, the United States of America, Turkey, Qatar and the UAE, because it is clear that the US, which believes that it has done a lot for Iraq since the overthrow of the Baathist regime in 2003, seeks to confront the Iranian role in Iraq and does not want an Iraqi government to be formed according to the aspirations of Iran, as the latter seeks an Iraq to depend on, in light of the US sanctions imposed on it, to be able to export its oil and revive its economy.

This Iranian-American tension is reflected on the level of their interference in Iraqi political affairs and increases the complexity of the Iraqi crisis, which seems to have begun to witness a change in the equation of alliances, as new influences emerged in Iraqi policy represented in the Turkish-Qatari alliance and the UAE’s strong entry into the Iraqi file. Turkey and the UAE played a major role in uniting the Sunni parties and addressing the differences between them all in return for the decline of the Iranian role, especially after the loss of its allies in the recent elections.  Although Iran managed, in the past decade, to split the Sunni ranks, today it is shocked by the attempt to unite it by Turkey, the UAE and Qatar, and this is a blow to Iran.

Perhaps what increases Iran’s fears even more is that the Kurdistan Democratic Party also enjoys good relations with Turkey, and this is what it considers a direct threat to its influence and strategic interests in Iraq, which means that Iran, which is considered one of the most prominent supporters of Shiite political parties, is no longer able to run the Shiite bloc in a single alliance at a time when Turkey was able to gather the scattered Sunni parties into one alliance called the al-Seyada (sovereignty) Alliance.

The growing Turkish role and its interference in forming the new government did not come from a vacuum, but rather because of its fears of the consequences of the birth of any new government that might seek to open the file of its military and illegal presence in southern Kurdistan (northern Iraq) and its continuous bombing and violation of Iraqi lands under the pretext of combating terrorism.

Therefore, Turkey does not want a strong Iraq that prevents foreign interference and limits its colonial aspirations aimed at dividing Iraq and reintegrating the Mosul Vilayet which includes Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, Dohuk and Kirkuk in Turkey within the so-called Misak-ı Millî project, which indicates that the state of political impasse that Iraq has reached in forming its current government is not related to the existing differences within the Shiite bloc only, in which Iran was the only player in the Iraqi political scene, but today the equations have changed with the entry of other regional players.

This is all except for challenges and other internal factors such as disagreements between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the main political parties and blocs over the oil and gas file and the demands of these forces to hand over these files to the central government in Baghdad, especially after the Federal Supreme Court ruled last February that the oil and gas law of the regional government issued in 2007 was unconstitutional and abolished. Therefore, the KRG and the Kurdish political forces are looking, through the formation of the new government, for the party that will meet their basic demands regarding the contentious constitutional articles between Erbil and Baghdad, namely oil, the disputed areas, and the status of the Peshmerga.

Parallel to all of the foregoing, the fact that the situation remains as it is in Iraqi policy and the insistence of the political blocs and parties to be bullied by regional and international powers and their refusal to open up to each other increases the complexities of forming the new government. It also means that the new government will not be formed far from consensus and quotas and therefore will not differ from its predecessors. This means that the solution includes the participation of all political parties in the track of calmness to be able to negotiate, solve their internal crises, deter foreign interference, and start an initiative to solve the crisis and form the government on national bases, not only in order to solve the existing political problems, but also to start a comprehensive development process and improve services in light of the high rates of unemployment and the deterioration of the living situation. Otherwise, the continuation of interference and disagreements, especially between the two Shiite parties, the Sadrist Movement and the Coordination Framework, will make Iraq on a hot plate that may lead to more escalation and congestion and will have negative repercussions on Iraq’s economic and political position and its foreign relations.