The Ukrainian crisis and the Syrian case
Within what Moscow considers a crucial area for its national security, the Ukrainian crisis has become an essential aspect of the global political scene. Therefore, Washington deals with this issue as a criterion in its seek to besiege Russia and China, while Moscow seeks to restore the legacy of the Soviet Union after the majority of Eastern European countries joined NATO. So, how will the confrontation between the forces interfering in the Ukrainian crisis reflect on the Syrian case?
The American al-Monitor website has recently published a report confirming that the Kremlin hopes that the Khmeimim Air Base, a Russian military air base located in Syria’s coastal governorate of Latakia, will be Russia’s future thorn in the side of NATO. The expansion and equipment that the Khmeimim base witnessed in addition to strengthening Russian Navy’s logistics center in Tartus is linked to the tensions in Ukraine, where Moscow is deploying its forces along the Ukrainian border supported by Russian naval activity in the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea, in order to avoid the conflict in Ukraine. This is a reference to the Americans that Russia is able to transfer the conflict to Syria.
The joint Russian air military maneuvers with the Syrian government forces opposite the ceasefire line in the Golan Heights carried veiled messages to Israel. This move indicates the Russian aspiration for a space of influence in the port of Latakia, and a message for Tel Aviv to interfere and put pressure on the Americans over the Ukraine issue. Russia is also seeking to join six landing ships that arrived in the port of Tartus, to confront the expansion of the NATO on its borders in Europe. To this end, Russia wants to pose a military threat on NATO’s southern flank in the Mediterranean from the Syrian coast, where NATO members Turkey, Greece and Italy are based in the eastern part of the sea.
As a result of Syria’s connection to the Ukrainian crisis in terms of the similarity of the players, Turkey may be the losing member of NATO if a Russian invasion of Ukraine occurs, as it maintains relations with both parties, and in the event of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, Turkey will be faced with a difficult choice. Turkey’s support for Russia will increase its differences with NATO, especially since its relations were greatly affected after Ankara’s purchase of Russian air defense systems, despite the criticism leveled against it by the NATO members and the US. But if Turkey chooses or is forced to take over the management of the war against Russia, this will lose it much of what Russia has achieved in the Syrian issue, in addition to economic consequences that weaken the position of the head of the Turkish regime in the face of his opponents inside Turkey, and perhaps his downfall in the upcoming presidential elections in 2023.
Holding the stick from the middle, the policy pursued by the President of the Turkish regime, Recep Tayyib Erdogan towards Russia and Ukraine, may make him lose all sides, which prompted Erdogan to the undesirable attempts by Russia to mediate between Kiev and Moscow to defuse the war, fearing the Russian turn against him due to the arming of Ukraine with Bayraktar TB2 drones. The targeting of Russian warplanes in northwestern Syria near the positions of the Turkish occupation army is only a message to Ankara that Moscow will not hesitate to move the Syrian front against Turkey, if it does not distance itself from the Ukrainian war in case it breaks out.
In the face of escalating tension between Russia and Ukraine, diplomatic efforts are being intensified in order to avoid the “war option”. Russia, which denies its intention to invade Ukraine, reiterates its adherence to the necessity of implementing the Minsk agreements to resolve the ongoing crisis in eastern Ukraine since the spring of 2014.
