Turkish-Iraqi new relations and hidden goals

Frequent visits of Turkish political, military and security officials to Baghdad in the recent period, especially the visit of the Turkish Defense Minister on Feb.2, 2024, which came approximately two weeks after two consecutive visits by Ibrahim Kalin, head of Turkish intelligence, suggest that there is a serious matter that must be confronted.

The official speech launched by the Iraqi and Turkish parties regarding economic relations, especially the economic partnership to be implemented by building an international road linking the waters of the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean, passing through Iraqi and Turkish lands, is nothing but a form of pulling the wool over eyes, because Turkey realizes that this project is not regional, but also international, and the major powers must have a say in it. Not only that, but Iran alone – as a regional country that dominates Iraq – can freeze or disrupt such a project whenever it wants.

But Turkey is exploiting Iraq’s poor economic conditions and the Iraqis’ need for water, and is deceiving the politicians and rulers of Baghdad that the only obstacle to this strategic project, which will bring comfort and solace to the Iraqis with a sufficient share of water, is the presence of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in the Kurdistan Region and the Qandil Mountains.

And for this reason; Turkey is intensifying its efforts and activity, and is striving to conclude a security agreement with the government of Iraq similar to that concluded between Tehran and Baghdad in 2023, which stipulated an end to the armed presence of Iranian Kurds (in the border areas) who oppose the regime in Tehran, and that the agreement be binding on the Iraqi party.

Especially since the Iraqi government’s gray position on the PKK – according to Turkey’s vision – no longer satisfies Turkey, so it wants to effectively implicate Iraq in its military activity to (allegedly) eliminate the PKK, after Turkey alone failed to eliminate it for decades.

It is clear that Turkey is presenting to Iraq the issue of eliminating the PKK as a necessary condition for implementing the alleged Development Road, in addition to other conditions, the most important of which are: officially recognizing the Turkish military presence on the territory of Iraq and the Kurdistan Region, and introducing Iraqi forces into the Kurdistan Region up to point zero on the border with Turkey.

It is certain that the scene has become clear on the surface, but it is complex and more dangerous in depth. Turkey’s ambitions in Iraq are old, and according to the National Pact (Misak-ı Millî) of 1920 and the map attached to it, Turkey’s borders reach Mosul in northern Iraq. For this reason, Turkey wants to set its feet in Iraq by various means, and then purge Iraq of the PKK through new means and alliances. Here, we do not rule out the complicity of Iraqi and Iranian parties with the Turkish plan to undermine the Kurdish federal experience in southern Kurdistan (northern Iraq); and the missiles that are fired at the Kurdistan Region from everywhere, the Federal Court’s wing clipping of Kurdish federalism, and the economic isolation of the Kurdistan Region through Development Road project are all indications of the bad faith of the parties concerned. On the other hand, the Turkish diplomatic moves that aim militarily to purge the areas of northern Iraq of PKK fighters, by officially installing Turkish military posts in the Kurdistan Region, and then encircling the Kurdistan Region and the PKK with the Iraqi army through the border with Turkey, are also other indications of the depth of the Turkish hostile plan.

The ultimate goal of this new plan is to return the Kurdish issue to square one.