Following the heavy sacrifices made in the fight against the terrorist organization, it was ultimately defeated geographically in its last stronghold of Baghuz\u2014thanks to the bloodshed of all the region\u2019s social components. With the dramatic fall of the authoritarian regime, the expulsion of Iranian militias, the devastation of life in Gaza caused by an uncalculated and unresolved war adventure initiated by Iran, the crushing of Hezbollah and the destruction of its strongholds to sever Iran\u2019s arm in favor of Lebanese sovereignty, and the collapse of the so-called “Axis of Resistance”\u2014the path was paved for extremist Islamic groups, led by Abu Muhammad al-Joulani, to assume leadership in Syria. This may have occurred through a coordinated deal involving Israel, the UK, the US, and Russia, whereby Joulani would rebrand himself as “Ahmad al-Sharaa” and ascend to the presidency of the Syrian Arab Republic.<\/p>\n
Now, as the saying goes, \u201cthe snow has melted, and the field has appeared,\u201d and the threads of this complex game are beginning to unravel. Among the emerging truths is that Ahmad al-Sharaa is performing a scripted role, carefully prearranged. To execute this role effectively, obstacles had to be cleared\u2014starting with the removal of the $10 million bounty for his capture or for information about him. This essentially granted him freedom, transforming him from a terrorist to a democrat. He was dressed in a sharp suit and tie, given a polished, civilized image, and was portrayed as someone capable of sitting with President Trump\u2014who allegedly complimented his looks in the presence of the Saudi Crown Prince, who applauded the lifting of sanctions on Syria. If this isn\u2019t a surreal political theater, what is?<\/p>\n
What followed was a series of exemptions designed to revitalize Syria\u2019s economy and restore it to life. European delegations arrived one after another, each in pursuit of their own interests. Gulf money poured in, and regional and international companies were granted open access to rehabilitate the war-torn country and re-float the regime after more than a decade of destruction.<\/p>\n
All this, while seemingly forgetting\u2014or willfully ignoring\u2014the true nature of these extremist groups. Is this not a bizarre and extraordinary paradox? Indeed, it\u2019s the language of interests.<\/p>\n
This approach was adopted while crimes committed in the Syrian coastal regions and in Druze areas were overlooked, as were the daily killings, abductions, and atrocities occurring across the country.<\/p>\n
What conclusions can we draw from this?<\/p>\n
We can infer that those who brought Ahmad al-Sharaa to power are now responsible for protecting him, and he complies fully and unhesitatingly with all that is asked of him. Some examples include:<\/p>\n
These points align with the vision of the United States, Europe, and the Arab world.<\/p>\n
Thus, al-Sharaa promotes himself domestically, regionally, and internationally. However, the internal situation paints a completely different picture:<\/p>\n
First: The so-called “national dialogue” he convened reflects exclusion rather than inclusion.<\/p>\n
Second: The constitutional declaration he issued is exclusionary.<\/p>\n
Third: His election by extremist factions as president of the transitional phase undermines his democratic credentials.<\/p>\n
These actions contradict his stated claims and raise serious concerns among other social groups\u2014Kurds, Druze, Alawites, Christians, and secular Sunnis.<\/p>\n
In light of these contradictions in both form and substance, we must ask several pressing questions:<\/p>\n
We believe the al-Sharaa government will be unable to answer these critical questions\u2014due to several internal, regional, and international factors, which we will outline below:<\/p>\n
On the internal level: <\/strong><\/p>\n On the regional level: <\/strong><\/p>\n The main regional players in the Syrian conflict include Turkey, Israel, and various Arab states\u2014each with their own interests and agendas regarding the new government.<\/p>\n Turkey has moved swiftly to strengthen security and economic ties, hoping to benefit from economic investments. However, its primary goal remains the suppression of the Kurdish project\u2014regardless of the cost.<\/p>\n Israel, meanwhile, plays a central role in Syria. It seeks to appeal to Kurdish sentiment, though the Kurds are too politically aware to be misled. They pursue their own third path and remain mindful of Israel\u2019s historically antagonistic stance on Kurdish rights\u2014from arming Turkey with advanced weaponry to its covert role in the arrest of Abdullah \u00d6calan, and now through its rivalry with Turkey in Syria. Israel\u2019s only concern is its own security and strategic interests.<\/p>\n The Arab states, meanwhile, follow American strategies. Their goal is to pull Shar\u2019a away from Turkey\u2019s orbit through financial support and various incentives. Normalization with Israel by the \u201cnew regime\u201d would open the door for broader Arab normalization.<\/p>\n On the international level: <\/strong><\/p>\n European countries are working hard to promote stability and security in Syria, primarily to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees who have become an economic burden on host countries. This would also enable European companies to invest in post-war reconstruction.<\/p>\n The U.S. remains the key player in shaping Middle East geopolitics, starting with Syria. Its strategic allies in this project include Israel, its NATO partner Turkey, and its most effective partner in the fight against ISIS\u2014Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)\u2014in addition to its strong ties with the new Syrian government.<\/p>\n Each of these actors has a distinct place in the U.S. foreign policy priority list.<\/p>\n So the question arises: How will the U.S. balance its interests among these competing players?<\/p>\n As we know, when interests converge, principles often disappear, and the compass shifts toward self-interest. This prompts us to outline three likely scenarios for Syria\u2019s future:<\/p>\n Scenario One: <\/strong><\/p>\n If the interim government in Damascus continues its outright rejection of decentralization and federalism\u2014with the apparent support of U.S. envoy Thomas Barak, who seems to act as a spokesperson for Turkey during ongoing negotiations\u2014despite decentralization being a central demand of most Syrian communities and a key safeguard against authoritarianism and future conflict, then this insistence on centralization will only sow new seeds of chaos, resentment, sectarian tension, and possibly armed conflict. This is a fate the Syrian people deeply fear and do not want.<\/p>\n Scenario Two: <\/strong><\/p>\n If international stakeholders\u2014particularly the U.S., France, and other European nations\u2014genuinely support the majority of Syrians, including Kurds, in securing their constitutional rights and steer Syria in the right direction, the country may finally enjoy peace, stability, development, and prosperity. Otherwise, Syria risks slipping back to square one\u2014or worse, into the abyss.<\/p>\n Scenario Three: <\/strong><\/p>\n Despite our reservations about the controversial statements made by the U.S. envoy\u2014which sparked a media storm\u2014they may, in fact, serve the Turkish agenda. However, we are firmly convinced that the (Abdi-Sharaa) agreement was brokered by both the U.S. and France. It is a balanced and foundational document that cannot be bypassed. Final resolution depends on normalization and official agreements, after which the Syrian file may be closed in a way that satisfies all components\u2014including recognition of Kurdish political rights.<\/p>\n Ultimately, there can be no solution without democracy. This third scenario is the most realistic and likely to unfold in the coming period.<\/p>\n \n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Following the heavy sacrifices made in the fight against the terrorist organization, it was ultimately defeated geographically in its last stronghold of Baghuz\u2014thanks to the bloodshed of all the region\u2019s social components. 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