Threatening policies on northern and eastern Syria
The northern and eastern regions of Syria have great importance in the strategies of different influential powers in the Syrian crisis, due to their natural and human resources, their location between three countries, and in general, each party in the conflict has a specific project and strategy that they want to implement across the entire Syrian geography, including the northern and eastern regions of Syria. These regions defied the expectations of various powers by not descending into civil war, due to the ability of its political and cultural elite to protect their areas from chaotic wars and internal conflicts by agreeing on a social contract and enhancing internal peace and community democracy, in addition to their success in uniting to eliminate ISIS terrorism, there are currently forces seeking to influence this project and use it for their own agendas, and other forces seeking to completely eliminate this administration and the will that has emerged in this region.
In general, northern and eastern regions of Syria are facing major future challenges; as various powers are trying to penetrate their areas and communities, causing disruption in their political, military, economic, social systems and more, by using both hard and soft power to dominate the region and its components and align them with their strategic projects; among the most prominent of these challenges:
– Direct occupation, considered one of the most dangerous policies facing the northern and eastern regions of Syria.
– Spreading and promoting extremist religious ideas in both Sunni and Shiite aspects on one hand, and nationalist ideas on the other hand among the region’s residents.
– International pragmatic policies.
These challenges form the core of the threatened policies for the security of northern and eastern regions of Syria, which requires those interested in political and military affairs to search for ways to confront and absorb their shocks by adopting more flexibility in responding to various internal issues, and pushing local communities through their elites to further participate in management, defense, and oversight.
Direct occupation as a means of subjugating societies:
After the Turkish system failed to dominate northern and eastern Syria through its affiliated organizations and ISIS mercenaries, it turned to direct occupation of the region. Based on its results, occupation is considered one of the most dangerous policies facing the security of the regions of northern and eastern Syria and their components, as it eliminates the administrative system of that region, implements demographic changes by threatening with the sword of extermination or the displacement of the original inhabitants from their historical areas in favor of strangers and newcomers from other areas. This would disrupt the demographic, historical, cultural, and even mental and intellectual composition of the occupied region. This is what happened and is happening in the areas of Afrin, Gire sipi, and Serekaniye occupied by the Turkish state, which continues to adhere to this approach towards the people of the region. Erdogan’s recent statements about carrying out a ground operation in northern and eastern Syria next summer and his efforts to pave the way for such future operations through shuttle visits by his officials to the US and a number of countries in the region, and attempting to obtain implicit approval from them, taking advantage of the chaos surrounding the region, especially that generated by the war between Hamas and Israel, which the Turkish state sees as a suitable opportunity to occupy new areas in northern and eastern Syria by causing a disruption in the balance of power that share influence over Syria and gaining their silence in any potential invasion. Turkey is trying to pretend to support the Palestinian case and be anti-American presence in the region, deceive Russia and Iran as friendly or at least neutral powers in their conflict with the West, while at the same time exploiting its relationship with Israel and preventing Turkey from becoming an enemy force in a way that convinces the West that the Turkish system is a guarantee of the continued weakness of Israel’s enemies.
Spreading and promoting extremist religious ideas:
The idea of taking control of the fortress from within is still one of the least costly means to control northern and eastern Syria compared to direct military intervention. Spreading extremist religious ideas among local communities is also considered one of the dangerous and systematic policies followed by both Turkey and ISIS. On one hand, Turkey imposes its authority on the Sunni sect, while Iran and its militias embrace the Shiite ideas based on Khomeini’s ideology. Both parties are trying to dominate the region’s components through persuasion or intimidation to implement their plans in the occupied areas. The Turkish occupation state works on turning the areas under its control into a fireball towards the Kurds and other components by accusing them of disbelief and atheism, exploiting the poverty in the region to form mercenary militias loyal to its policies and ideology. This allows it to penetrate the communities of northern and eastern Syria and manage them politically and militarily by tempting them with money and power. As for ISIS, whose interests align with those of the Turkish occupation state, it follows the same policy and tries to benefit from chaos and the Israeli war on Gaza by portraying it as a war between Muslims and Jews to gain new followers for its ideology and recruit new blood. This can be understood in the recent resurgence of ISIS and its operations against the Syrian Democratic Forces in this context.
As for Iran and its militias, they are also trying to extend their influence from areas west of the Euphrates to northern and eastern Syria, spreading their ideology among the different components, especially in the border areas like Deir Al-Zor. They do this through several means: firstly, by highlighting the bitter experience of the Sunni sect with ISIS and presenting the Shiite sect as a principle to rid themselves of oppression. Secondly, by linking many tribes in northern and eastern Syria to the Al-Bayt family in order to facilitate their conversion to Shiism. Thirdly, by exploiting the widespread poverty in Syria and organizing charitable activities to gain sympathizers for Khomeini’s ideology, recruiting young people into military militias aimed at fighting both the Syrian Democratic Forces and the international coalition forces by portraying them as infidel forces. In addition to these tactics, Iran and its militias benefit from the conflict between Hamas and Israel by portraying themselves as the only force in the region standing against Western and Israeli plans.
These policies are considered among the most dangerous policies, as they are carried out by exploiting the weaknesses of supporters of these extreme ideas and ideologies. In addition, the follower consequently turns into an opponent of his components and surrounding environment, thus becoming a mercenary working for those extremist ideas seeking to control and dominate the region’s components.
Baathist Nationalist Ideas:
The proponents of these ideas are working on renewing and changing their arguments and gaining new supporters in the northern and eastern regions of Syria through a series of accusations and claims. First, inciting components against the self-administration by accusing it of separatism from Syria and claiming the latter’s Arabism. Secondly, portraying the self-administration as “Kurdish” in order to create tension among the components, inciting extreme nationalist and racist ideas by accusing the Syrian Democratic Forces of collaborating with America. Thirdly, promoting the return of the Syrian regime to the region over the course of a decade, mobilizing Baath Party cadres for this task by urging people to engage in settlements with the Syrian regime to enhance its authority in the region, and forming sleeper cells to carry out sabotage operations, spread rumors, and engage in organized crime…etc.
International Pragmatic Policy in the Region:
International policies based on strategic interests towards any crisis in the world are considered a source of many other crises, and this can be seen in the Syrian crisis; the countries involved in the Syrian conflict seek to expand their areas of influence regardless of the views and desires of its components. They also seek to turn the region into a battlefield for geopolitical competition and connect it to axis politics in order to achieve their agendas and projects in the region. They exploit the concerns of the people towards various risks to increase their influence in the region. Therefore, the danger of the region being subjected to geopolitical bargaining is not an excluded matter.
These mentioned policies, along with other means such as special warfare and conspiratorial operations, are likely to undermine the stability of the northern and eastern regions of Syria, which are considered the safest and most diverse areas in Syria compared to the areas controlled by the Syrian regime, the areas occupied by the Turkish regime, and the extremist organizations. Confronting these policies is not easy, but their impact can be reduced by strengthening the issues that those threatened policies focus on. These issues include democracy, cohesion of local communities, and establishing strong diplomatic relations with the parliaments of democratic countries and the social and cultural forces in those countries.
When it comes to direct confrontation with occupation, having quality weapons is one of the things that strengthen the defensive policy of the Syrian Democratic Forces, who are working hard to deter forces trying to undermine the gains of the region’s people and occupy new areas, with Turkey at the forefront. Without a doubt, Turkey will try to disrupt the security and stability of the region in the near and distant future. Amidst the chaos and hybrid wars across different Syrian territories and the continuous statements from Turkish officials about invading areas in northern and eastern Syria, and with ISIS being one of Turkey’s tools for occupying the region, there is a need to increase the pace of confronting and eliminating its cells. This is already happening on the ground, but there is also a need to involve the community in countering its ideology, as well as to develop military diplomacy with the key forces involved in the Syrian crisis, as any direct occupation cannot happen without the green light from these forces.
When it comes to confronting and countering extremist religious and nationalist Ba’athist ideas; this policy requires a great awareness from the components of the region about these racist and extremist ideas that do not evolve their intellectual reality but rather turn them into mere tools for others. This can be clearly seen in the Deir Al-Zor region, which has witnessed a series of conspiratorial operations aimed at undermining the security and stability of its components, and dragging its youth into a sea of blood under fake and systematic pretexts. Therefore, in order to thwart this policy, the region’s components must enhance the principles of democratic nation to a greater extent, as it is considered the most appropriate solution to the various issues they face. These principles and visions have proven their effectiveness on the ground, by preserving the region from nationalist and extremist religious ideas that try to infiltrate the minds of Syrians to ensure their sustainability and the sustainability of chaos. They have also managed to preserve what remains of the Syrian national identity that has been eroded amidst the bloody conflict that the country has witnessed since March 2011. In addition, it is up to the political and cultural elite, and even the self-administration institutions, to face the black propaganda campaigns launched by the Turkish and Syrian regimes on the region; by intensifying their communication with civil society, democratic political parties, and intellectuals in the areas controlled by the two regimes; due to a great deal of ignorance about the reality of self-administration and its efforts to find a solution to the country’s crisis. Additionally, the mentioned regimes try to win over the people in their areas and suppress the protests that arise from time to time by linking all their miseries and economic deterioration to the self-administration and the SDF, in order to address their internal problems and find a way out after the failure of their policies, and the emergence of a kleptocratic class and warlords in their areas.
When it comes to dealing with international pragmatic policy in the region, strong diplomatic relations must be established with the parliaments of democratic countries and other social and cultural forces in those countries. Also, addressing the justifications that some countries use to take unfriendly positions towards northern and eastern Syria, such as the agreement signed by SDF with the international coalition against ISIS, memorandums of understanding with Russia, and building institutional relationships with various institutions in Western, Arab, and Russian countries in educational, health, cultural, municipal, commercial, and human rights fields.
